Quaterpartidisme

La Mesa del Parlament d’Andalusia s’ha convertit en un factor de crisi inesperat pel PSOE andalús. Susana Díaz s’ha trobat amb inestabilitat institucional quan es veia amb un camí planer de roses.

El bipartidisme no s’ha enfonsat a Andalusia, el PSOE s’ha mantingut, el PP ha retrocedit força, Podemos ha fet un gran salt, tot i mostrar que encara no és alternativa per guanyar, Ciutadans ha emergit com renovació de les dretes, IU ha minvat.

La tendència que s’expressa a Andalusia, reflectida en les enquestes i projeccions estatals, ens dibuixa un transit d’equilibri inestable entre un bipartidisme fàctic i un quaterpartidisme. El PP i el PSOE, cedeixen protagonisme per compartir-lo amb Podemos i Ciutadans.

Les combinacions parlamentaries que en resultin ens donaran quina és l’evolució de la crisi del règim i de les institucions estatals.

Els problemes de fons amb la crisi econòmica, la crisi democràtica de representació i de les institucions estatals, inclosa la corona i el regne, amb la càrrega de la corrupció, la crisis nacional de sobirania de l’Estat de les Autonomies, amb la tendència vers la secessió per part de Catalunya, són els mateixos que abans de les eleccions andaluses.

Aquests factors de crisi són els que fomenten el descrèdit dels partits parlamentaris i de les institucions. Podemos i C’s s’enlairen a cavall de la indignació popular. Aquests dos nous partits aconsegueixen un suport significatiu, mentre pressionen al PP i al PSOE, encara que no els superen. Si més no a Andalusia. IU necessita reformular la seva estratègia, doncs a Sevilla i a Madrid es fa palès que no representarà en un futur proper la vertebració de l’alternativa.

La Syriza espanyola tindrà un color molt més mestís del que es considerava.

A Catalunya, els grans trets que veiem a Andalusia i a Madrid, tindran un significat diferent però no aliè al que ha esdevingut a Andalusia.

El factor de pulsió popular per la sobirania i la independència trastoca la tendencia estatal. L’ANC, a la 3a Assemblea a la ciutat de Lleida del diumenge 12 d’abril, amb tres mil participants, ha girat a fons en situar la República Catalana a la centralitat de l’imaginari ciutadà. L’ANC vol posar la independència, la ruptura democràtica nacional, una nova legalitat sobirana catalana, en funció de construir un país amb trets socials i lliure, amb un procés constituent i el conseqüent referendo popular.

Ha estat precisament a Barcelona, on ha arrancat amb força l’experiència novella anomenada confluència, a l’estela de la imatge potent de l’Ada Colau. Barcelona en comú capgira tots els esquemes amb una entitat organització cívica, ciutadana i política.

La imatge “en comú” ha agafat força a les principals ciutats catalanes i espanyoles. Les eleccions municipals establiran si la ciutadania li dóna futur a aquesta confluència. EUiA s’hi ha compromès a fons, ICV també. L’èxit de Barcelona en comú determinarà alhora el futur i les perspectives de totes les organitzacions que en formen part.

El bipartidisme regnant, o les combinacions de quaterpartidisme, les haurem de confrontar amb els fenòmens, de moment locals, de confluències com Barcelona en comú, així com amb entitats tipus ANC.

En cinc setmanes les municipals il·lustraran les forces de futur i alternativa.

 

Francesc Matas Salla

Publicat al butlletí d’EUiA

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